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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.