How Likely For Donald Trump's Gaza Plan Will Succeed?

Hamas's partial acceptance of the US president's Gaza deal on Friday has been welcomed internationally representing the closest the two warring sides have got over the past 24 months to ending the war in Gaza.

How Near Is a Deal?

The Palestinian faction's incomplete acceptance of the US proposal is the closest mediators have got over the last several months to a comprehensive conclusion of the conflict in Gaza. Nevertheless, they are still distant from a deal.

The US president's 20-point proposal to end the war requires for the group free every captive within 72 hours, surrender ruling power to an international council led by the US president, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israeli forces would slowly withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and return over one thousand detainees.

The deal includes an increase of humanitarian aid to Gaza, parts of which are experiencing starvation, and recovery financing to Gaza, which has been nearly completely decimated.

Hamas only agreed to three points: the freeing of every captive, the handing over of control and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas said the remaining parts of the deal must be negotiated alongside other Palestinian parties, as it is part of a unified national position.

In practice, this means Hamas wants more discussions regarding the more difficult aspects of the US plan, particularly the demand for its disarmament, and a solid timeline on Israel’s withdrawal.

Where and When Will Negotiations Take Place?

Representatives have flown to the Egyptian capital to work out details to bridge the differences between the two sides.

Negotiations will start tomorrow and are expected to produce conclusions within a few days, regardless of the outcome.

The US president posted an image of a chart of Gaza last Saturday evening depicting the boundary to which Israeli troops ought to pull back and said if the group consents to the terms, that the ceasefire would begin immediately. The US president is keen to conclude the war as it approaches its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned focus for him.

The Israeli prime minister said an agreement to secure the return of Israeli hostages back home would ideally take place soon.

Which Differences Remain?

The two sides have been cautious their bets entering the talks.

Hamas has repeatedly declined to lay down its arms during previous talks. It has provided no word whether its position has shifted regarding this issue, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with conditions. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there exists little wiggle room on the disarmament issue and are resolved to bind Hamas through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it agreed to surrendering power over Gaza to a technocratic administration, as outlined in the US proposal. However, in a statement, Hamas clarified it would agree to a Gaza-based expert-led administration, rather than the global authority proposed by Trump in the proposal.

Israel has also sought to keep the matter regarding its military pullout unclear. Just hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan during a shared media briefing in the US capital recently, Netanyahu released a recording reassuring the Israeli public that troops would stay across much of Gaza.

Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would remain inside Gaza, stating that hostages would be returned while the Israeli military would stay “deep inside the strip”.

The prime minister's stance seemingly stands against the stipulation in Trump’s plan that Israeli troops completely pull out from Gaza. The group will demand guarantees that Israeli forces will fully withdraw and that should the group surrenders its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to Gaza.

Negotiators will have to bridge these differences, obtaining clear, strict language on disarmament from the group. They must also show to the faction that the Israeli government will truly pull out from Gaza and that there are international guarantees that will compel Israel to adhere with the conditions of the agreement.

The differences could be reconciled, and the US will certainly push both parties to reach a deal. Nevertheless, the talks have come near to a deal previously suddenly collapsing several times in the past two years, leaving both parties cautious of declaring victory prior to a formal agreement.

Michael Price
Michael Price

A passionate esports journalist and streamer with a focus on competitive gaming trends and community engagement.