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Current surveys show that nearly 40% of Spanish men aged between 18 and 34 plan to support the right-wing Vox movement. The party gained its inaugural parliamentary position in the Cortes Generales in 2019 and has once again gained momentum. The party's latest advances has expanded beyond a trend exclusive to male voters: 20% of young women express intent to back the far-right party, with the largest rise seen in the most youthful demographic.

A Generational Divide

The data suggests that the younger you are in contemporary Spain, the greater the chance you are to vote for a party that champions, along with other policies, the mass expulsion of immigrants to protect “the country's cultural heritage”, the limiting abortion access, end-of-life and trans rights, the weakening EU structures and the opposition to measures to tackle the environmental emergency. The elderly still support the two largest parties, the left-leaning Socialists and the conservative PP. Females over 60 and over make up the most significant segment rejecting the far right. The Catalan region differs: backing for regional far-right movements is spread across older generations as well.

What's Driving the Trend

Due to its historical background, Spain had long appeared resistant to the recent rise of the nationalist movements. Spain's distinct position has ended, but how do we explain increasing support for Vox among a new generation of younger Spanish voters? There are several contributory factors, but two specific emergencies, poorly managed by the biggest parties, appear to have drained traditional party backing: the deadly floods in Valencia in recent memory and this summer’s wildfires in León, Zamora, Orense and Extremadura. Spain’s quasi-federal system allows voters to place responsibility toward the centre-left governing coalition and to the conservative-led regional governments. Simultaneously, ethical lapses have stained both main parties.

What Matters to the Electorate

The previous election took place in 2023 and the primary worries raised by the party's base during that period involved immigration and “the political establishment”.

Statistics regarding under-35 voters remains scarce, but polling shows that real estate affordability dominates for the population in general and particularly for anyone under 35. Income, jobs and living expenses are cited as well. Migrant issues scarcely appear as an concern for youth. But the idea that political leaders are problematic, which was the other big issue for Vox voters in 2023, is common among all age groups. Experts comment that the party has gained trendiness among young people who like its anti-system message that the party is managing to project – similar to how parties on the left and the centre did in the previous decade.

Economic Realities

Spain's economic performance excels compared to neighbors for its economic growth and ranks highly in the developed nations. But it isn't benefiting many, notably those under 35 who enter the labour market in urban centers like Barcelona.

Prioritizing and providing cheap homes is the primary concern for younger people, who are financially worse off than previous generations primarily due to the expensive real estate in the cities where jobs are concentrated. Salaries remain modest relative to international standards. In the last twenty years, retirees have grown wealthier than young adults, notably parents, as research indicates. Living standards have improved in multiple areas – Spain is richer, more advanced, more inclusive and safer. But age-group friction is rising as the economy is not growing like it did in the previous decades.

Political Culture and Public Perception

What other options do established parties have – particularly on the left, which traditionally counted on the backing from liberal youth? An evident approach would be to confront the current political norms and end constant arguing. Leaders, especially from the major parties, focus excessive attention, constantly, to exchanging insults naturally they attract widespread public cynicism, or even mockery.

Typically these are minor distractions amid daily routines. But a voter reaction is noticeable when this, often performative, conflict erupts amid a major emergency. Currently, it's challenging to find a politician from any major party in federal and local administration – those who bear the greatest responsibility – ready to hesitate before attacking a rival, when details remain uncertain.

Example: Valencia Floods

In Valencia, there is a obvious instance the right-wing local administration must answer. It's alarming that the government continues a one year following failing flood notifications amid the flooding. Madrid correctly emphasizes the Valencia region’s leaders’ negligence and inaction on global warming, which is transforming the country while Vox (and increasingly the PP) divert attention elsewhere. But is a public row necessary for each issue?

The Cost of Political Culture

This political culture may help to win elections in the short term, but it is proving a perilous way forward.

Left-wing politicians regularly state politicians differ, and they're correct. But it's difficult to convince voters that there are clear policy differences when so many in prominent roles sound the same on online channels.

Parties in Spain are notoriously hard to change. But it has happened previously. The current prime minister reformed within his own party, and left-leaning movements managed to break bipartisanship and briefly seemed poised to shape coming years. Optimistic reform may not be easy now, but the other option looks bleak.