Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
