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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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