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Two years after the militant group atrocities of October 7th, 2023, where about 1,200 Israelis were killed, and amid a genocide in Gaza that has claimed more than sixty-seven thousand Palestinian casualties, the urgency for peace has never been more critical. Palestinians are in dire need for an end to starvation and bombings. Israeli citizens want the hostilities to end for the benefit of captives still held and soldiers. Conflict has reverberated across the region. Support has been growing around Donald Trump's peace initiative, with both Israel's prime minister and Hamas showing reluctant approval under US threat.

Frail Hopes and Major Rejections

As indirect talks between Israel and Hamas beginning in Egypt on Monday afternoon, there are frail hopes of a breakthrough finally. However, both parties have made it evident that they reject key elements of the 20-point US plan, which begins with an halt to fighting, the return of all hostages – then the freeing of Palestinian prisoners – and the restart of humanitarian assistance.

For the Israeli leader, ongoing conflict in Gaza and beyond extends his political survival. His far-right coalition partners aim to expel the Palestinian population and settle Gaza. The militant organization has no desire to sign itself out of existence, and returning the last hostages would remove any leverage it still holds. It has seen much of its leadership eliminated, as well as life in Gaza – but has also watched international public opinion change dramatically towards support for Palestinians, dragging governments in its aftermath. It can enlist from a huge pool of frustrated and scarred young men.

Comprehensive Proposal and Its Contentious Elements

The complete proposal is even more controversial. Pledges of broad support from nations in the region and in the European continent do not mean that they think it feasible – still less that they want to deploy forces to an “international stabilisation force”. But a number hope that a more plausible and just way forward might in some way arise from all this.

True, this proposal is less grotesque than the initial Trumpian vision of a “resort” established through the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Palestinians would remain, but would be marginalized, as they were in drawing up the proposal. The “peace council” overseeing Gaza seems like a colonial administration led by Donald Trump himself and, disturbingly given his history in the area, the former UK prime minister.

The plan gives superficial support to future autonomy and sovereignty as a mere “aspiration” – not an entitlement – of the Palestinian people, via a route that is extremely unclear, dependent and uncertain. It states that Israel will not control or take over Gaza. The Israeli prime minister has previously stated that the army would stay in most of it and would “strongly oppose” a independent Palestine.

Pressure and Prospects

The US leader has pressured the Israel's leader at last, but lethal attacks continue and he, like Joe Biden previously, could have halted the carnage much earlier. Telling the both sides to “act quickly” now demonstrates his impatience as much as the pressing need for a truce. He will certainly accept whatever enables him to claim credit. If the Israeli military does stop, it could resume the offensive at any moment – exactly like it violated the truce early this year.

Any opportunity to stop this destructive conflict must be seized. A superior outcome may emerge from this path, if – a major condition – the American president and others apply continuous strong influence to Mr Netanyahu and forge a deal that Arab nations can fully support, guaranteeing pressure on Hamas. But lasting peace must not be built upon an abandonment of basic Palestinian rights.